Modeling Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Their Effects on Biodiversity

Syed Ajijur Rahman from CIFOR co-authored a paper recently published in the journal of LAND. The study, titled Modeling Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Their Effects on Biodiversity in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, assessed the spatiotemporal patterns of land use and land cover changes in the research area and developed a set of land change scenarios using the InVEST framework to estimated their potential effects on biodiversity. InVEST is a free and open-source software model developed by the Natural Capital Project, widely used to map and value the ecosystem services from nature. The study found that the continued trend of land use change will significantly decline the quality of habitat in nature and impact biodiversity, calling for an action to adopt conservation-oriented land use change approaches to improve the overall habitat quality for ensured biodiversity in Indonesia.

Abstract
Land use and land cover (LULC) change cause biodiversity decline through loss, alteration, and fragmentation of habitats. There are uncertainties on how LULC will change in the future and the effect of such change on biodiversity. In this paper we applied the Land Change Modeler (LCM) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Scenario Generator tool to develop three spatially explicit LULC future scenarios from 2015 to 2030 in the Pulang Pisau district of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. The district is experiencing a rapid loss of biodiversity as a result of unprecedented LULC changes. Further, we used the InVEST Habitat Quality model to map habitat quality as a proxy to biodiversity in each of the scenarios. We find habitat quality decline is largest in a scenario where past trends of LULC change continue, followed by a scenario with planned agricultural expansion. Alternately, a conservation-oriented scenario results in significant improvements in habitat quality for biodiversity. This information can support in developing appropriate land use policy for biodiversity conservation in Indonesia.

Sharma, R., Nehren, U., Rahman, S. A., Meyer, M., Rimal, B., Aria Seta, G., & Baral, H. (2018). Modeling Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Their Effects on Biodiversity in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Land, 7(2), 57. doi:10.3390/land7020057